Presidency rejects World Bank’s poverty report

The Presidency has disputed the latest economic report by Nigeria’s biggest multilateral lender, the World Bank, which estimated that 139 million citizens were living in poverty, describing the figure as “unrealistic” and detached from the country’s economic realities.

President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said in a post on his official X handle on Wednesday that the poverty figures must be “properly contextualised” within the limits of global poverty measurement models.

“While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,” Dare said.

The Presidency explained that the 139 million figure was derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, set in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity, and should not be mistaken for an actual headcount of poor Nigerians.

It noted that when converted to nominal terms, the $2.15 benchmark equals about N100,000 per month at current exchange rates, which is well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000.

“There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s numbers as a literal, real-time headcount. The estimate is derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, a benchmark set in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms. If converted nominally, that figure equals about $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rate, well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities.

“Poverty assessment under PPP methodology uses historical consumption data (Nigeria’s last major survey was in 2018/19) and often overlooks the informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of households. The government, therefore, regards the figure as a modelled global estimate, not an empirical representation of conditions in 2025. What truly matters is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform,” the statement added.

According to the former minister, poverty estimates under the PPP methodology rely on historical consumption data, often overlooking the vast informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of Nigerian households. The government, therefore, considers the World Bank’s estimate as “a modelled global projection, not an empirical representation of living conditions in 2025.”

He stressed that what truly matters is not the static figure but the direction of change. It said Nigeria’s economy is now on a recovery and reform trajectory, driven by policies designed to ensure inclusive growth and social protection.

It noted that the current administration had expanded a number of welfare and intervention programmes aimed at cushioning the impact of recent reforms, while laying the groundwork for long-term prosperity.

Among the key initiatives Dare highlighted are, “Conditional Cash Transfers: Expanded to reach up to 15 million households nationwide, with verified digital enrolment through the National Social Register. Over N297 billion has been disbursed since 2023 to poor and vulnerable families. Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme: A major new initiative targeting all 8,809 electoral wards, delivering micro-infrastructure, livelihoods, and social services directly at the community level.

“National Social Investment Programmes: Strengthened components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and Home-Grown School Feeding to protect jobs, encourage small enterprise, and keep children in school. Food Security Initiatives: Distribution of subsidised grains and fertilisers, mechanisation partnerships, and the revival of strategic food reserves to curb inflationary pressure on staples.

“Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund: Financing critical energy, road, and housing projects to lower living costs and stimulate local employment, National Credit Guarantee Company: Expanding affordable credit to small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs through risk-sharing mechanisms with commercial banks.”