Inflation Falls to 15.10% in January 2026 — NBS
Nigeria’s annual headline inflation rate eased further to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, down slightly from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure represents a continued moderation in price pressures at the start of the year.
The marginal decline occurred despite analyst forecasts that inflation could rise towards 18-19 per cent in January, reflecting broader easing trends not yet fully priced into expectations.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation recorded a -2.88 per cent decline, meaning average price levels actually fell compared with December. That marks a sharp contrast with the 0.54 per cent rise seen in the previous month.
Food Prices Crash — Single-Digit Inflation
The most striking feature of the January figures was the performance of the food inflation index, which plunged to 8.89 per cent year-on-year — the first single-digit food inflation reading in over a decade. This reflects substantial declines in the prices of key staples.
Prices for items central to Nigerian diets — including water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, beans, beef and cassava — all recorded notable decreases, according to the NBS.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by more than 6 per cent, indicating that average food costs actually dropped in January compared with December 2025.
Wider Inflation Trends & Economic Context
The January reading marks the tenth consecutive month of easing headline inflation, and the lowest annual rate since late 2020. Core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — also continued to moderate, albeit at a slower pace.
Despite these improvements, inflation remains elevated compared with historical targets, and many Nigerians still face high living costs amid a currency that continues to depreciate and structural challenges in production and logistics. Analysts caution that the reported slowdown, while welcome, may not yet translate into widespread purchasing power gains, especially for low-income households.
Outlook
Economists will be watching how these early-year trends evolve, particularly ahead of policy decisions by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Lower inflation — especially in food prices — could influence the bank’s approach to interest rates and monetary policy in 2026.
