IMPI Projects Nigeria’s GDP to Hit 5.5% in 2026, Outpacing IMF and World Bank Forecasts
Abuja, Nigeria — The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 5.5 per cent in 2026, signalling stronger economic momentum than forecasts by global financial institutions.
In a policy statement signed by its chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy research group said the updated projection reflects the impact of what it describes as a new economic model adopted by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. According to IMPI, this model marks a departure from Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on crude oil and shifts the focus toward policy-driven economic facilitation, aimed at reducing red tape, lowering business costs, and accelerating trade and investment.
IMPI’s outlook of 5.5 per cent GDP growth would surpass the more conservative estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, both of which recently revised their forecasts but still place Nigeria’s growth below IMPI’s projection. The IMF’s latest outlook envisages growth closer to the mid-4 per cent range for 2026, while the World Bank’s forecast is similarly moderate.
The think tank’s statement noted that the Nigerian government’s own projection for 2026 growth stands at around 4.68 per cent, and that other domestic institutions, such as the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), project even higher growth — up to 7 per cent — underscoring a broad spectrum of optimism among local analysts.
IMPI attributed the projected growth to macroeconomic improvements including easing inflationary pressures, stabilising foreign exchange conditions, strengthened investor confidence, and rising economic activity across key sectors. The group described the upward revisions by multilateral organisations as evidence of renewed confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction under current policies.
As policymakers and private sector stakeholders await official GDP figures, the debate over growth prospects highlights both the challenges and potential opportunities for Africa’s largest economy in the coming year.
