2026 Budget: Economists reveal major strengths, fault lines in Tinubu’s proposal
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s proposed N58.47 trillion budget for the 2026 fiscal year on Friday has drawn both optimism and pessimism as economists pinpoint major strengths and fault lines.
The breakdown of the budget proposal President Tinubu presented to the Joint Session of the National Assembly on Friday shows that Security and Defense received the highest allocation of N5.41 trillion, followed by Infrastructure with N3.56 trillion, Education with N3.52 trillion, and Health with N2.48 trillion.
The budget is anchored on projected revenue of N34.33 trillion, estimated expenditure of N58.18 trillion, and N15.52 trillion set aside for debt servicing.
Key assumptions underpinning the 2026 budget include an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar. The proposal represents a significant increase from the N43.56 trillion and N54.99 trillion budgets for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years, respectively.
In separate interviews with SOCIETY WATCH, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, and the CEO of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, spoke on the strengths and fault lines of the 2026 budget proposal.
Yusuf described the 2026 budget as better structured than previous ones (2024 and 2025), noting that its assumptions are more conservative and realistic than those of 2025.
However, he cautioned that the oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and production target still appear optimistic given Nigeria’s historical performance, calling for a downward review to enhance credibility.
He also urged the National Assembly to resist inflating the budget through constituency projects, warning that repeated upward revisions often undermine implementation and public trust.
According to him, the credibility of the budget is as important as its size.
Yusuf further identified weak non-tax revenue performance by government agencies as a recurring challenge and stressed the need to optimize revenue generation.
While acknowledging the President’s emphasis on fiscal consolidation, he expressed concern that debt servicing consumes nearly 50 percent of projected revenue, shrinking fiscal space and constraining development spending.
