N8.41tn oil theft drains economy, fuels investor doubts
Nigeria lost crude oil valued at a staggering N8.41tn to theft and metering deficiencies between 2021 and July 2025, according to the latest data sourced from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Although the regulator celebrated recent progress in reducing daily losses to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years, experts warn that the cumulative economic toll remains devastating and exposes governance failures in the oil sector.
NUPRC’s analysis showed that Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels of crude in 2021, 20.9 million barrels in 2022, 4.3 million barrels in 2023, 4.1 million barrels in 2024, and 2.04 million barrels between January and July 2025.
Using Statista’s average Brent crude prices, these losses translate to: $2.66bn in 2021 (37.6m barrels at $70.86 each); $2.11bn in 2022 (20.9m barrels at $100.93 each); $355.7m in 2023 (4.3m barrels at $82.49 each); $330.3m in 2024 (4.1m barrels at $80.56 each); and $146.5m in January–July 2025 (2.04m barrels at $71.79 each).
In total, the losses amounted to $5.61bn, equivalent to N8.41tn at the current exchange rate of about N1,500/$. To put this into perspective, the stolen value could have built 56,074 primary health centres (at N150m each); funded 129,401 classroom blocks (at N65m each); and constructed 10,191 kilometres of roads (at N825m/km).
By comparison, the Federal Government allocated just N1tn for 468 road projects in the 2025 budget—barely one-eighth of the value of oil losses in four and a half years. The N8.41tn also exceeds the entire N2.48tn health budget and nearly triples the N3.52tn education budget for 2025.
Energy experts, however, said the sheer scale of past losses highlights the massive development opportunities squandered. United States–based oil and gas consultant Chukwuma Atuanya said while the reduction to 2.04 million barrels in the first seven months of 2025 represents progress, Nigeria still lags behind its production targets.
“The country still needs an additional 400,000 bpd to reach the 2 million bpd target by December 2025. Losses of 9,600 bpd are still significant,” he said. Atuanya credited improvements to intensified military operations, metering upgrades, unmanned surveillance systems, and community involvement. Yet, he warned that theft continues to sap foreign exchange earnings, undermine budgets, weaken the naira, and scare away investors.
“Oil theft causes massive revenue losses and budget underperformance. It fuels currency devaluation and economic instability. It also discourages investment, since uncertainty over actual export volumes undermines confidence,” he explained.
